More numbers - secret poll results
Yiikes. But this reflects worries that have been plaguing me for the past few weeks. Do I like what this implies? Nope. But you deserve the truth and you shall have it.
Poll results from a secret poll commissioned by Britain's Defense Ministry In Iraq, and obtained by London's Telegraph:
Eighty-two percent of respondents said they "strongly oppose" troops being in their country, 67 percent feel less secure and 72 percent have no confidence that the occupation will succeed.
Furthermore:
45 percent approve of attacks on foreign troops.
Worse still:
In some areas 65 percent support attacks, and less than one percent think the occupation is improving security.
Is it really any surprise?
Sources: telegraph.co.uk the ScienceDaily, and the World Peace Herald (if only we had some).
Update: Tellingly, even Iraq The Model are having trouble explaining this poll to their regular visitors, having conceded that "maybe even 90% of the people in any country do not want foreign troops" and "it could be true or close to the truth that 82% of Iraqis do not want the troops to stay indefinitely". I would venture that staying indefinitely or not is a mute point, opposing the presence of troops is opposing the presence of troops. Quoting the article:
82 per cent are "strongly opposed" to the presence of coalition troops.
Re article authenticity queries. Sean Rayment is a London Telegraph Defence Correspondent, a few web searches will throw up other articles of his (yes and some as controversial too - go to the tele, key "sean rayment" into the search box and click go). I do-not sense fabrication and do recognise the journalistic style, typical in that poll reportage is in itself formulaic and generally closely follows questionnaire wording. For example. How the question behind the finding that "such and such per cent are 'strongly opposed' to the presence of coalition troops" might typically be phrased:
Overall, do you support or oppose the presence of coalition troops in Iraq? Is that strongly/somewhat support or somewhat/strongly oppose?
1. Strongly support
2. Somewhat support
3. Somewhat oppose
4. Strongly oppose
Nuff said. Question forensically reconstructed. Good poll reportage sticks closely to questionnaire wording because, as many astute netizens are aware, different answers can be obtained by asking different questions.
As for queries re the time frame and researchers, the Telegraph article states the poll was conducted in August and:
by an Iraqi university research team that, for security reasons, was not told the data it compiled would be used by coalition forces.
While the article states the team weren't told who the client was for security purposes, it's not uncommon for client names to be with-held from interviewers in some reknowned international research organisations because it helps prevent interviewer bias. So far, methodology sounds legit to me.
Very fairly, I thought, the article also compares the results to another earlier poll and notes that:
The findings differ markedly from a survey carried out by the BBC in March 2004 in which the overwhelming consensus among the 2,500 Iraqis questioned was that life was good. More of those questioned supported the war than opposed it.
And queries re polling areas? The article specifically mentions results from Maysan (one of the four provinces under British control) and Basra. Given that Maysan is "traditionally the home to many Marsh Arabs" and that the Marsh Arabs are amoung the few who have faired well under this war with the reclamation of marshlands, it is striking that even so "65 per cent of people in Maysan - believe that attacks against coalition forces are justified". Why is this? Could it be that, though the marshes are irrigated again, the people are still largely poor and brassed off? In citing results for "Justification for Violent Attacks", results from Basra are compared with Iraq as a whole:
The report states that for Iraq as a whole, 45 per cent of people feel attacks are justified. In Basra, the proportion is reduced to 25 per cent.
Again, I cannot help but notice how even keeled the whole article is - having published "less sensational" results along with the damning 82 per cent finding. I also find it interesting that Basra is not as supportive of violent means and think this is consistent with cities globally. I have a theory that people in larger population centres are generally more passive. Town dwellers might fight the rat race but they are also the ones out on the streets en mass during anti-war demonstrations, they like to eat and shop and have electricity and don't like it when this is disturbed by having everything around them blowing up all the while.
Are Iraq The Model correct to question poll results? Yes, by all means question anything when the fog of war is all about us. I just wish those two were as critical of all the pro-war drivel their visitors feed them.
18 Comments
If you'd bothered to read deeper rich, you might have noticed that the poll was conducted by Iraqi researchers.
I'm sure the researchers will be pleased to see you belittling and underestimating their efforts. Way to go. Ace public relations spiel, rich.
I see you're determined to make the war ever more popular with your sensitivity.
Flattered as I am by the thought I might have taught you something rich, there is still a, what shall we call it, "margin of error" between your readyness to question anything that suggests war might be unpopular as opposed to anything that might suggest it is.
But hey, if our leaders prefer to ignore public opinion and dig themselves deeper into the mire you can't exactly say they were totally ignorant after commissioning studies like this.
Emigre, if richsanter was so statistically numerate, he might do well to post the results from a few OTHER polls taken in Iraq in order to do a comparison test and to demonstrate that these results are out of synch with the others.
But he can't.
He can't because the fact is, all the other polls have the same message. That's why.
rich,
Had you bothered to read the source article, the survey was conducted during the month of August, just before the Brits "rescued" their own "agitators" from a jail.
That article compares the survey to a very public survey taken the year before.
If you are asking questions about a poll, until you get the answers, how can you even think to come to a judgement about the results?
Meh, last comment that rich' deleted before he realised his post had posted afterall:
"i made a post, but it was obviously deleted by adolph emigre. i guess i cannot defend myself in a civilized way. perhaps i should vent my displeasure through beheadings, as is the norm for muslims."
- richsanter 10/25/2005 02:01:54 AM
Last of the great misconclusions.
The norm for venting displeasure through beheading probably resides with the French. We don't do that here.
Alright people, why don't we look at the OTHER polls that have been taken that directly address the issue of US troop presence and whether the Iraqi people support this?
For example:
Poll conducted by the Pan Arab Research Center of Dubai in March 22-April 9, 2004 for CNN / Gallup.
For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±1.7%
The US-British military action in Iraq [can be justified] 31% [cannot be justified] 52%
Current attacks against US forces in Iraq: [can be justified] 30% [cannot be justified] 47% Sometimes can sometimes cannot : 22%
In your opinion which would you prefer – for the U.S. and British forces to leave Immediately : 57% Stay a while longer: 36%
In your opinion, how have U.S. forces in Iraq conducted themselves
[badly] : 58% [well] 34%
On balance, do you, personally, now think of the Coalition forces mostly as occupiers, or mostly as liberators?
Occupiers: 71% Liberators: 19%
At the time of the invasion last spring, did you, personally, think of the Coalition forces mostly as occupiers, or as liberators?
Occupiers: 43% Liberators: 43%
and
Public Opinion in Iraq
First Poll Following Abu Ghraib Revelations
Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Hillah,Diwaniyah, Baqubah
14-23 May 2004
Conducted by IIACSS in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Diwaniyah,
Hillah & Baqubah between 14 and 23 May. (Sample can be taken as indicative of areas sampled with overall Margin of Error of ±4.1%)
Iraqi Confidence in Coalition Forces : 10% in May 2004
Compared to 3 months ago my opinion of Moqtada al-Sadr is: Better: 81%
[Following Al Sadr's armed rebellion]
What powers should the unelected, interim government have for its 7 months in office? Order Coalition Forces to leave Iraq: 70% in May 2004
Which of the following contributes most to your sense of security? Coalition Foces: 1% Joint CF Iraqi Patrols: 1% Family& Friends: 71%
The Coalition Forces are: Occupiers 92% Liberators: 2%
How long should Coalition Forces stay in Iraq?
Leave immediately 41% Leave after a permanent government is elected: 45% [Total 86%]
and
Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International poll - January 19 to 23, 2005 on behalf of television broadcaster Abu Dhabi TV. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
"Majorities of both Sunni Arabs (82%) and Shiites (69%) also favor U.S. forces withdrawing either immediately or after an elected government is in place"
Clearly we can see that every other major poll underscores the MoD poll and in fact this latest poll fits neatly within the trends displayed by the previous polls.
But of course, according to SOME people, these polls will doubtless be a collective consipiracy by CNN, Gallup, the Pan Arab Research Center of Dubai, Zogby International, Abu Dhabi TV, IIACSS and the British Ministry of Defence just to smear mud on the glorious cause of Bushy-wushy and his deluded drones.
I think we can safely say that they are enmeshed within a fantasy world of their own making, into which any intrusions of reality are to be severely rejected. Unfortunately their delusions intrude on OUR world in a most negative manner and thus their noses must be rubbed into the poo they left on the carpet at every opportunity.
[rs] “bruno, what is the reason behind you writing for 45mins about polls that are over a year old? 1, i dont care to verify your statistics, and 2, those polls have no bearing on the latest poll in question. 1 year ago today bush's approval rating was probably a few points over 50%, but look at it now. who knows what it will be next year. things change.”
[rs] “1, i dont care to verify your statistics”
(Because you can’t dispute them.)
[rs] “2, those polls have no bearing on the latest poll in question.”
Uh, yes they do, given that the stats in those polls are consistently within the range of the MoD poll – stats that you dismissed as – what was it – ‘very very flawed’ and ‘crap’ and that the ‘numbers don’t add up’. Therefore, this latest poll doesn’t actually add anything new to the conversation – it CONFIRMS that the previously reported trends are consistent.
Uh, gee, you just lost. Again.
“bruno, what is the reason behind you writing for 45mins about polls that are over a year old?”
Gosh, I don’t know, what could my reasons possibly be?
Now that’s a toughie.
Perhaps to show how ignorant and retarded you are? Or could it be to demonstrate to the world that your “analysis” of the poll’s deficiencies is just sour-grapes crap?
Or could it be merely to confirm that if (duh) a Muslim country is invaded by Muslim hating turds such as yourself the net result is that they WILL INDEED hate your guts and want you OUT.
Hey, listen, loser (and yes, you ALWAYS LOSE) if you want to hate Muslims, well, that’s fine. No problem. In fact, thanks for your honesty in stating it so upfront. It sure saves me the hassle of dragging it out of you.
But, and this is a big BUT, don’t then pretend to be concerned about the question of whether Iraqis LIKE you or not, or whether they enjoy the ‘liberties’ the Occupation has brought. It’s very obvious that you enjoy it when the US goes on a rampage and kills a bunch of preferably Muslim Iraqis.
Now, that’s hypocrisy.
At least have the decency to keep your racism pure and admit that (a) you hate Iraqi Muslims (b) They’d rip you apart like a pi?ata if they found you on the streets of Baghdad and knew who you were.
There, that keeps the conversation aboveboard and honest.
Now, unless you have something relevant to add to the conversation (other than disputing the contents of a poll which you actually DON’T CARE about, or random insults) shove off, why don’t you?
Thanks for bringing up the old poll stats B, puts the "secret poll" figures in context and adds a sense of history. Polling is valuable over time, when patterns begin to emerge, in this case pointing to a worriesome hardening of opinion.
It's just a shame there wasn't any preliminary opinion polling before the most recent referendum, if conducted with integrity preliminary polling could have helped illuminate any major voting discrepencies and perhaps helped in addressing fraud.
Dear Emigré,
you must be very tolerant indeed to allow this ape Richsanter to post his sectarian and racist abuse on your blog.
What strikes me is that his posts are idiotic as well. 'Richsanter' forgets to mention that the poll was paid for by the British military, not by some anti-war group or by some media outlet.
The Brits paid for the poll, and it is quite sure that they checked with care if its methodology was reliable or not; they wanted to know for positive about the trends of Iraqi public opinion about the occupation, and how they translated into physical danger to them.
Benighted 'richsanter', do you truly believe that such a poll could ever be "very, very flawed"?
I do know that for critters such as you are it is quite difficult to think, but, please, do make an effort sometime...
Richsanter, you loser, don’t you get embarrassed by your intellectual scarcity and your devious manner, here demonstrated to the world?
If I make a definitive point that (a) you hate muslims and want to see them die and link this to (b) 90% of Iraqis are Muslim and come to the conclusion that (c) you actually DON’T CARE about Iraqis and whether they like you or not, and in fact just want to see them die … and I link this to the fact that trying to hold both beliefs at once merely makes you a lying, losing hypocrite, only bent on disruption and annoyance.
Your response? A rant about the definition of ‘racism’.
WHAT A LOSER.
Alright, then, if you prefer, substitute ‘religious bigot’ for ‘racist’ and ‘religious bigotry’ for ‘racism’.
My argument still holds. You are in fact, a cowardly hypocrite who is too scared to state upfront that you hate Iraqis, Arabs and any other sort of Muslim and wish them all dead, and that in fact you could care less about the poll results.
My God, this is the internet, what are we going to do, beat you with a big stick?
WHAT A LOSER.
"certain people, such as myself, have vowed to fight the hate and propaganda that spews from emigre until the very end of my life"
Beating up on a pacifist must sure be life threatening and scary. Wow gee whiz it's miraculous to see you have survived it all rich and are able to tell the story of your life as well, here on this blog where all faiths and denominations are represented in some way or another.
You worked for several government agencies rich? What, as the janitor? Not that it matters mind, I have some very good friends who have janitored in times of need.
I may be the anonymous you are referring to rich. I can assure you I am most certainly not Bruno.
I cannot understand why you spend so much time trying to discredit this survey, unless the data scares you.
One after another your arguments have been rased, and yet you return to contradict yourself over and again.
Bruno, Anon et all
Please try to ignore richsanter. He is only interested in spreading disinformation and getting attention. He has posted quite enough times already on this thread and having nothing new to add is just hogging the alphabet.
I don't mind if people want to take the time to rebuke illogical claims but aren't really in the mood for playing mama re name calling and baiting.
Rich, you got trolled and lost the plot. Now blog off.
[rs] "iraqthemodel made a similar post recently also questioning the results. go call some these other people losers."
Done so already rich. You're a little slow on the uptake, huh? Go check it out.
Emigre --
I hear you loud n' clear. You are of course, right. Although on the other hand, the more he throws his toys here, the less time he has to spam Iraqi's blogs with his delightful comments.
Such as the ones that you deleted, for example. Such Shakespearean prose! Alas, those gilded words are now lost forever to our descendents, and they will not be able to drink from the honeyed fountain that is santer's pen.
I hope that we are not hated too much for causing this loss ... ;)
OK, I'm officially done with this story.
Cheerio, and congrats on the patience. (With me too, I know I can get outta hand sometimes :) )
Thank you Bruno.
Just for the record, this was richsanter's comment deleted as at 0/28/2005 08:58:16 AM
"why dont you fuck yourself you skanky little sandnigger? now hop on your fucking camel and go suck bruno's dick, ok? that's why i think of you and your worthless opinions bitch. please leave this up for everyone to see just in case there are a few new people to the site that dont know how i already feel about terrorist-supporting muslims like yourself. enjoy your weekend. please "blog off"
-richsanter"
There, you have your Shakespearean prose back. Who knows, perhaps he thinks he's Henry Miller (ugh).
How sad must it be to be someone like richsanter. Except for removing Saddam i can't think of any reason why the Iraqis would like the Coalition. You blew it with Abu Ghraib and failed to provide security.
Some people believe some beheading footage was created by psy-operatives (or bored film-makers with a surplus of ken-dolls).
War is not very nice either way, it brings out the worst in people. Would citizens have spat so readily in other citizens faces before all this?
It could've been worse richsanter. She could've chosen to count the 2,000th dead US soldier.
I don't know why you're bellyaching about this poll when you could be complaining that she hasn't acknowledged all the troops that have died.
Post a Comment
<< Home