Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Update & thought

No blogs to count so far today, and still looking for something to do with something (blogroll rss related).

But in the meantime, a thought. Not trying to be controversial, but. So, looks like someone is really keen on pushing through the constitution, and while I am concerned about how this may affect women, there is another thing. And unfortunately, it means that I am going to have to write the "O" word.

Whoever is keen on getting the draft through as it is, is straightset on securing the south - and it's doesn't have much to do with people. "Ethnic" divisions and all the other fears that seem to crop up every time somebody mentions federalism are sort of subterfuge for the real lurgy - because it's a natural resource issue that is driving the preference for federalism. Because somebody is building something down south near the border, I don't have a clue what it is but I'm betting it's transport infrastructure for moving lots of big heavy stuff. Near Al Muthanna, it's where all of Japan's engineering troops were dispatched, and it's where some of Australia's forces have been sent too. Now, this is a fairly quiet district, from what I can make out, in terms of war, and compared to the rest of Iraq has a fairly low density population (which was probably why Saddam thought it made such a good spot to warehouse weapons manufacturing stuff in the late 70's and all through the 80's). So, it's not really the kind of place anyone would bother sending troops unless they wanted them to construct something out of the media limelight, the official line is that they're repairing bridges and things - implying "bridges for the people". Except that as I pointed out: low population density. If bridges are being "repaired" it's probably some kind of up-grade work to deal with heavyduty trucks that might be carrying heavy loads. Oh gee, I wonder where trucks with heavy loads might be heading and what they might be carrying...

It makes sense really, noone would try building oil-lines from Iraq across Saudi Arabia (yet). It would just be a prime target (media and otherwise). Where as oil tankers, while still targets, are smaller ones and not so much is lost if one is shot.

Betcha, if you look up local natural resources in Al Muthanna you'll find it's oil rich. Then look at a map and where it's situated. Then think about the best way to control the region and oil flow. Then think about how this could be implemented "legally" through a "democratic" constitution. Voila, an oil state. An oil state, controlled by foreign armies, providing foreign engineers with work, that won't be tied to the rest of Iraq's population.

I think this is my first "oil" post. It's a bit sketchy, a journalist could probably, like, fill out the story some more and go there to find out. Anyway, nevermind. This is a blog and today I have no blogs to count.

2 Comments

#8/30/2005 04:18:00 pm Assalam Aleikom Blogger Moron99

em, here's a link to constitutional draft. Have you read it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/24_08_05_constit.pdf

There has been some mention that the English translation does not mention a section that refers to the MNF as muhibeena. So there is also a certain degree of doubt that the translation is either complete or completely accurate. However, the changes have been minor for some time now and it is reasonable to assume that it the translated version will be extremely accurate, if not quite 100% complete.

Amoung other things it says that no region may pass or enact any laws that violate the federal constitution. The constitution guarantees oil revenues to be shared amoung all. There is a formula outlined but the ratios are left for the legislature to define. If the legislature attempts to divert an unfair portion to any district or group the courts are empowered to over-rule them and have clear consitutional grounds to do so.

So what is going on in Iraq right now by some groups is to leverage fear and confusion into opposition. In time we will know why they oppose. However, the fears of splitting Iraq into three small countries and/or having the shia implement their version of sharia and/or having the oil revenues stolen by regional provinces are all constitutionally unfounded.

 
#9/04/2005 04:41:00 pm Assalam Aleikom Blogger emigre

No fear is ever unfounded. Splitting Iraq up to control oil supply looks like a way to gain resources in a very messy situation, and a constitution is the perfect foil for it.

Same old story - divide and conquer, ingratiate with the traders, never mind the people.

I have a feeling that somebody paid out cash bigtime for "faulty intelligence" and now they are recovering some of the expense by selling out parts of the constitution.

Somebody got promised a leadership role in exchange for information leading up to this war, and with each passing demand for democracy and with every real expectation of it, that promise gets harder and harder to keep. It's fairly easy to monitor the pressure, by watching trolling patterns on politically oriented sites.

If somebody can diddle with the constitution to ensure they get their allocated plot in the new eden, they will - and whoever that is couldn't care less about human rights or Iraq civilians.

 

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